A diplomatic option to end the fighting between the Syrian army and the SDF “is still on the table”, a security analyst says. “What the Syrian government here is doing is trying to increase its leverage over the SDF, it feels like it’s been offering the SDF very, very good deals – for example recognising the Kurds as a distinct minority group in Syria, their language, their holidays,” Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer at King’s College London, said. “But if you ask Syrian government sources, they say they’ve got nothing in return.” Meanwhile, the government in Damascus knows the United States won’t tolerate a prolonged offensive against the SDF not just because it’s an ally, but because there’s the risk of 10,000 ISIL prisoners being held by the Kurdish group escaping. “We already saw pictures and footage from areas like Tabqa of prisoners being let out of jail… It will not be long before that footage is weaponised by the SDF,” Pinfold said. He predicted the SDF will end up “negotiating relatively quickly simply because they will feel like they have no alternative” as the army keeps pushing its forces out of territory.
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Syrian tribal forces say they’ve taken control of areas in Raqqa city
A source within government-allied tribal forces has confirmed to Al Jazeera that fighters have taken control of the military security building in Raqqa, the city’s Mashlab neighbourhood, as well as its Shuaib quarter. The footage below, verified by Al Jazeera, showed the fighters advancing into the city.
Syria president, SDF leader hold phone call as gov’t forces advance
An official with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria says President Ahmed al-Sharaa and SDF chief Mazloum Abdi have talked on the phone. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera that “things are positive”. The recent government offensive following a breakdown in efforts to integrate the SDF into the army has seen government forces and local tribes seize control of large areas of northeastern Syria.
Syrian army tactic to ‘flip’ Arab tribal fighters affiliated with SDF
The SDF has “overplayed its hand” because the vast majority of the territory it controls is not Kurdish-dominated, an analyst says. SDF-controlled areas are largely comprised of Sunni Arabs, including about 100,000 fighting with the SDF, said Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King’s College London. “So what the Syrian government has been trying to do is not to fight all of those SDF forces but to flip them – to get them to rise up against the SDF and basically show that they don’t want to be part of that confederation any more. They want to be part of a central and a strong Syria,” Geist Pinfold told Al Jazeera. Syrian officials, therefore, are using military force now “to get exactly what they wanted”, focusing on controlling Arab-majority areas and oil-rich parts of SDF territory, he told Al Jazeera. “The real risk is if the government overplays its hand. We’ve already heard people like Lindsey Graham in the US, the senator, saying he wants to look at reimposing sanctions against the Syrian regime,” Geist Pinfold said. “The US will be furiously shuttling between both sides, both of whom are US allies.” The challenge for the Syrian army will be when it advances into more entrenched SDF and more demographically Kurdish areas, the analyst said. “They will not just face hostile SDF forces but also a supportive civilian population, which is the breeding ground for an insurgency that, frankly, Syria’s government cannot deal with at this time,” Geist Pinfold said.